Scenarios as tools for assessing the impacts of the hydrogen transition

Finland aims to become Europe’s leading hydrogen economy player, but the transition – in its early stages – faces significant challenges such as land-use conflicts, resource shortages, and investment uncertainties. The JustH2Transit project, led by the University of Oulu, has developed five scenarios that also consider the social and justice-related aspects of the transition.
Professori Marko Huttula
Professori Marko Huttula

While various hydrogen economy futures have been outlined in multiple scenarios and roadmaps, social aspects and justice considerations have received little emphasis. Scenarios can help explore possible future pathways and assess key factors in Finland’s hydrogen economy.

“The purpose of these scenarios is not to predict the future, but to provide policymakers, industry stakeholders, and researchers with strategic thinking tools that can help them understand uncertainties, complex systems, and different opportunities and impacts related to the transition,” says Professor Marko Huttula, the consortium leader.

“A successful hydrogen transition requires broad societal acceptance, including from those who are not immediate beneficiaries,” he adds.

Five scenarios for Finland’s hydrogen transition:

  1. Prosperity and flourishing – the transformation scenario
    The hydrogen economy benefits from diverse electricity sources, strong EU and national policy support, and favorable business conditions. Large-scale hydrogen production meets high demand, driving innovation, job creation, and sustainable well-being. Local co-ownership models ensure broad societal acceptance, and environmental responsibility is upheld through sustainable infrastructure.
  2. Unequal benefits and inequality – the constraints scenario
    The hydrogen transition faces obstacles such as unclear regulations, local conflicts, rigid permitting processes, and labor shortages due to restrictive immigration policies. Investments, infrastructure, and financial incentives remain insufficient. Energy and food poverty increase as businesses prioritize profits over societal well-being.
  3. Growing pains and delays in a continuous growth scenario
    Hydrogen adoption proceeds cautiously. Renewable energy sources and nuclear power meet industrial demand, but labor shortages and slow investments in hydrogen infrastructure hinder growth. Limited local community engagement leads to land-use conflicts and a lack of social acceptance.
  4. Public power and state leadership – the strategy and policy scenario
    Public policies promote hydrogen demand through subsidies and regulations, despite some transition hurdles. A socially just hydrogen strategy, education, and open borders support an equitable transition and skills development. Land-use conflicts are prevented through community-driven measures, and investments enable both local and centralized hydrogen projects.
  5. Crises and collapse scenario
    Multiple crises weaken the hydrogen economy. Wars, resource shortages, and economic collapse lead to a reliance on fossil fuels, jeopardizing energy security and production while creating shortages of critical materials. Protectionist and totalitarian policies, border closures, and natural resource conflicts shift investments toward crisis-related sectors, slowing renewable energy development and weakening societal acceptance.

JustH2Transit project

Last updated: 5.2.2025